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The Players' Championship, TPC at Sawgrass, Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida

Phil Mickelson starts as 11/1 favourite this week but, despite the absence of Tiger Woods, history is against a successful defence of the title Lefty won last year. No player has ever finished in the top four whilst defending at Sawgrass.

Since official rankings began there have been two fairly distinct categories of winner-rankings: top-12 players (12 of 21) and players ranked 40-70 (6/21). The three other winners were Adam Scott in 2004 (ranked 18), Craig Perks in 2002 (ranked 203) and Davis Love in 1992 (ranked 17). Other than Perks, no winner was ranked above 68.

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If another top-12 ranked player wins this year we feel it will be one of Jim Furyk, Adam Scott or Stewart Cink. They have the best current form in this band and all have done well at the venue - Scott won the title in 2004. Furyk (20/1) and Cink (25/1) are our preferred choices as Scott's last nine wins worldwide have come after more mediocre performances in his previous event. They are also more attractively priced than the Aussie (14/1) and offer additional each-way value.

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Whilst we have discarded one Aussie, if a longer odds winner emerges we consider his compatriots Robert Allenby (60/1), John Senden (125/1) and Rod Pampling (125/1) to be the best selections. Over the last two seasons Allenby has had nine top-10 PGA finishes in the pre-June part of the year - more than any player other than Phil Mickelson (nine also). His fourth place last week at the Wachovia sets him up nicely for another good showing.

The other two Australians are chosen for their compatibility with previous winners of similar ranking; the general profile here is of a player who had made at least four previous TPC appearances, including a top-40 finish, missed between two and four cuts (inclusive) and had a top-five Major finish.

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Senden has had top-30 finishes the last three weeks, came fourth in the USPGA last year, and has a best finish of 22nd at Sawgrass. Pampling finally found some form at the Wachovia last week coming eighth after a Sunday flourish and could be ready to produce a big performance. Boylesports and PaddyPower offer six places for each-way bets and the quoted prices are all currently available with these two.

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